Europe & CIS

Set a monitoring analytical instrument for identification of potential causes giving rise to local conflict and tensions associated with environment use.

Project Vision /Goals
This project has the goal to set a monitoring analytical instrument for identification of potential causes giving rise to local conflict and tensions associated with environment use and increase the understanding of the relevance of environmental aspects as root causes to the rise of social conflict.

EWS are potentially powerful providers of information, and can be useful tools in establishing the link between environmental hazards, competition over access to vital resources, and transboundary tensions between states and border communities. The wider understanding of the significance of environmental issues to social stability will facilitate the development and adoption of responsible policies with regards to the utilisation of natural resources and foster cooperation and sustainable resource management at both national and sub-regional level in Ferghana Valley.

The objectives of the project can be summarised as follows:
1.    Set up a cross-boarder monitoring mechanism for identification, analysis and monitoring of environmental causes of social conflict in the boarder areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in conjunction with the ongoing programmes for monitoring in the area;
2.    Develop capacities of local and national governments to identify and thus prevent at an early stage the growing risks as well as respond to increased risk for social conflict raised from environmental aspects;
3.    Increase the understanding and awareness of environmental factors and their causal effect on social conflict, providing broader assessments of the security environment in the Ferghana Valley;
4.    Contribute to further integration of environmental concerns and sustainable development principles into countries’ development agendas through the enhanced understanding of the impact of the environment on social stability and prosperity;
5.    Increase the level of information and awareness for the international community, essential to the planning of rapid practical assistance and interventions in a conflict situation.

These objectives will address the lessons learned from the evaluations of the South-eastern Europe project, in that they will build response capacities, and mechanisms for feeding the report results and recommendations into policy making on a regular and institutionalised basis. In doing this, the project will take existing such mechanisms into regard, and to the extent possible for the purposes of this project utilise and enhance them.
 

Project Deliverables
The project outputs will be:
•    Developed monitoring and analysis capabilities, including human resources, for the assessment of the effect of environmental factors on social conflict;
•    Developed methodology and established indicators for monitoring environmental aspects in social conflict, with defined baseline values and causal chain. The methodology should not be limited to an analysis of threats but should also trace mutual gains, i.e. the situations where environmental cooperation creates positive side effects;
•    Integrated sections in the production of EW reports already being produced, including response measure recommendations if necessary;
•    Established mechanisms and institutions for dissemination and incorporation of the reports and its recommendations into policy making of local and national Governments, as well as to the international community, in order to respond to the increase of risk of social conflict, taking into regard and to the extent possible building upon existing such mechanisms and institutions;
•    Developed capacities of governments, national as well as local, to implement the response measures based on the recommendations.
Project Description
Early warning is understood as the process of collecting and analyzing information for the purpose of identifying and recommending strategic options for preventive measures prior to the outbreak of violent conflict. EWS have previously been utilised to determine the risk of conflict in the Ferghana Valley area, however with less of an emphasis on environmental issues. Given the specific circumstances in the Valley, comprising of complex ethnic composition, complicated border arrangements, and over-population putting stress on the natural resources in the area, environmental aspects are significant to the evaluation of conflict risk and play a large part in creating social tension.

The project team will produce regular analytical reports in English and Russian for dissemination among the local stakeholders. Through establishing mechanisms for incorporation of the report recommendations into policymaking, the project will integrate environmental concerns and sustainable development principles into the development frameworks of the countries. The project will also undertake capacity building activities for the local communities to ensure that the response capacities to the recommendations in the reports are established/enhanced. Through these reports, the international community would also acquire an informed picture of the needs and priorities, which are essential to the planning of rapid practical assistance and interventions in a conflict situation.

The project will be implemented as an integral part of the efforts undertaken by UNDP in the systems of early warning and monitoring developed within the interlinked frameworks of the Preventive Development Programme (Southern Kyrgyzstan), and Cross-Border Conflict Prevention Project (northern Tajikistan/southern Kyrgyzstan) undertaken by UNDP Kyrgyzstan and UNDP Tajikistan. These systems currently monitor risk factors in such fields as competition over resources (water, land and pastures), establishment of the international borders and how this affects livelihoods of the border communities, actors of the local authorities and the local security actors, and capacities to peacefully resolve conflicts. The project will pilot in municipalities in Ferghana Valley.

Specific consideration will be taken to look at the gender aspects of conflict prevention in the design of the methodology of the EWS. Gender aspects in resource management and other relevant themes for each specific country will also be considered. In addition, the monitoring groups will be established in a representative manner, reflecting the gender balance of the societies being monitored.
 

Project Phases
The project is anticipated to last for an initial 24 months. Depending on how the outcomes and outputs are met, an extension will be considered. As the project will build upon the existing programmes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, some of the activities are already addressed. During the fall of 2006, the methodology development was also undertaken through UNDP Bratislava.

The project will be carried out in three phases, in four initial villages/communities:

Start-up Phase (late 2006)
•    Recruitment of regional project manager, identification and recruitment of monitors, analysts and experts in Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan part of Ferghana Valley (completed, continuation subject to funding);
•    Identification of municipalities for monitoring, and the relevant actors in the local and national governments, and assignment of focal points in the Oblast Committees and other relevant Government structures (completed);
•    Develop the environmental EWS methodology and establish EWS monitoring indicators in close cooperation with the relevant Government actors (completed);
•    Agree with local and national government actors on mechanisms for report dissemination and institutional arrangements to channel report recommendations into decision making processes, and for implementing response measures of increased risk for conflict;
•    Organise a regional training of all monitors, stakeholders and local and national government actors on environmental risk factors (completed);
•    Establishing the mechanisms for report dissemination, institutional arrangements to channel report recommendations into decision making processes, and for implementing response measures, to the extent possible building upon already existing such mechanisms and institutional arrangements;
•    Establishment of monitoring focal groups, taking into account such factors as gender balance, social group representation, ethnic representation, etc., to the extent possible building upon already existing monitoring focal groups.
Monitoring Phase (Early 2007 – July 2008)
•    Monitoring  and analysis of local developments – on-going, production of local reports with response recommendations according to the schedule of the Preventive Development Programme;
•    Dissemination of properly formatted reports with recommendations to relevant actors, i.e. policy-makers and expert community, through the established mechanisms for required policy action;
•    Capacity building activities for local authorities and community-based organisations to respond to the recommendations of the reports.
Exit Phase (July 2008)
•    Annual report production in Russian and English presented to government and local actors, and EnvSec focal points;
•    Assessment of project results, evaluation and lessons learned (Action Reflection Note), deciding on continuation and expansion into other communities.
 

Project Responsibilities
The project is executed directly by UNDP Kyrgyzstan and UNDP Tajikistan, with the close involvement of the EnvSec Programme Specialist and with the assistance of the EnvSec Assistant, thus working in partnership with:
•    Bratislava Regional Centre, which provide substantive input and backstopping;
•    Early Warning NGOs, which participate in project activities and provide research and other substantive inputs;
•    Research institutions, which provide applied research;
•    UNDP regional staff providing outreach in substantive issues related to early warning content;
•    UNDP Country Offices will engage consultants and sub-contractors for the delivery of certain outputs.

Monitoring and evaluation will be carried out on the basis of:
-    Participant evaluations and final reports delivered at the conclusion of the regional training;
-    Inclusions of early warning content in UNDP outreach activities;
-    Delivery of research papers according to scheduled deadlines set forth in initiation of activities;
-    A consistent strategy in place by the end of 2006 for long-term crisis prevention activities with environmental aspects.
 

Peter Svedberg